Open problems · P4
Resilience as a measurable quantity
Complex-systems theory predicts rising variance and autocorrelation as a regulated system loses stability. Which estimators survive sparse, noisy, irregular observation?
Why it matters
If resilience can be measured from routine data, it is an early warning that precedes decline. Our preregistered pilot in HRS is testing one version of this.
What exists
- Preregistered variability pilot in HRS (osf.io/kzfs4); results will be posted whatever they show.
- Location-scale model code in the project repository.
A first step
Derive the minimum number of occasions and spacing at which a person-level variability estimate has useful reliability.